Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
