Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
